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Thursday, 17 August 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Crude dips in Asia ahead of U.S. rig count data

Crude oil prices dipped in Asia on Friday with rig count data from the U.S. last week expected to show continued gains for U.S. shale oil drillers.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery dipped 0.06% to $47.06 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent eased 0.10% to $50.98 a barrel.

Overnight, crude futures settled higher on Thursday, as traders mulled over data showing U.S. crude supplies fell the most in eleven-months while U.S. production rose to a more than two-year high.

Crude oil snapped a three-day losing streak, as traders appeared to take advantage of lower crude prices, following a slump on Wednesday, after a report from the Energy Information Administration showed U.S. production hit two-year highs.

Total crude-oil production rose to 9.502m barrels per day, an uptick of 79,000 barrels a day compared to last week, the EIA said. That was the highest weekly output figure since mid-July 2015, offsetting bullish crude inventories data, narrowing expectations of crude futures breaching $50 a barrel.

Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 8.9m barrels in the week ended Aug 11, confounding expectations of a draw of about only 3.6m barrels. It was biggest draw in crude inventories in eleven-months.

The uptick U.S. production, however, adds to concerns that the global glut in crude supplies will continue during the second half of the year, as Opec’s rate of compliance with the global deal to curb production fell in July.

Opec’s rate of compliance with output cuts slid to 75 percent in July, the lowest since the accord started in January, the IEA said.

In May, Opec and non-Opec members agreed to extend production cuts for a period of nine months until March, but stuck to production cuts of 1.8 million bpd agreed in November last year.

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Wednesday, 16 August 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Crude oil gain in Asia with U.S. inventory data a mixed picture

Crude oil prices rebounded in Asia on Thursday as investors saw buying opportunity on an overnight dip on mixed U.S. inventory data.

Record refinery runs in the U.S. are drawing down crude stocks, but gasoline produced is not seeing expected strong demand as the summer driving season heads to a close, said Matt Smith, director of commodities, Clipper Data.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery rose 0.24% to $46.89, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent gained 0.44% to $50.49 a barrel.

Overnight, crude futures settled lower on Wednesday, as data showing U.S. crude production rose to its highest in over two years offset a decline in supplies of U.S. crude for a seventh-straight week.

Crude oil fell for the third-straight day, after a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing crude stockpiles fell by more than expected last week failed to offset concerns over a rise in production.

Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 8.9m barrels in the week ended Aug 11, confounding expectations of a draw of about only 3m barrels. It was seventh-straight week of falling crude inventories.

Gasoline inventories, one of the products that crude is refined into, unexpectedly rose by roughly 22,000 barrels against expectations of a draw of 1.1m barrels while distillate stockpiles rose by 702,000 barrels, compared to expectations of a decline of 572,000 barrels.

The report also highlighted total crude-oil production rose to 9.502m barrels per day, an uptick of 79,000 barrels a day compared to last week. That was the highest weekly output figure since mid-July 2015, and sparked fresh oversupply jitters, pressuring oil prices.The rise in gasoline stockpiles, also added to oversupply concerns, as analysts expect crude demand will taper as the peak of summer driving season has passed.

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Tuesday, 15 August 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil prices edge up on falling US crude stocks, but global glut still weighs

Oil prices edged up on Wednesday on a fall in U.S. crude inventories, although markets were still being weighed down by general oversupply.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $51.02 per barrel at 0218 GMT, up 22 cents or 0.4 percent from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $47.70 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.3 percent.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 9.2 million barrels in the week to Aug. 11 to 469.2 million, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday.

That compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 3.1 million barrels.

"The market took this as a mildly bullish report," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Rivkin Securities.

However, gasoline stocks climbed by 301,000 barrels, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.1 million barrel decline. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data will be published late on Wednesday.

More broadly, analysts said ample supplies were preventing prices from moving much higher.

"It is the ongoing fundamental issue of excessive supply that is continuing to weigh on oil prices... Not a lot has changed despite the OPEC and Russia efforts recently. While these producers have tried to limit their oil output, U.S. shale oil continues to rise," 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries together with non-OPEC producers like Russia has pledged to restrict output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) between January this year and March 2018.

Offsetting much of that effort, however, U.S. oil production has soared by almost 12 percent since mid-2016 to 9.42 million bpd. C-OUT-T-EIA

On the demand side, analysts also see a gradual slowdown in consumption growth as gasoline demand peaks in the United States due to improving fuel efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles, while China's voracious oil thirst also starts to taper off. crude forward price curve 0#LCO: shows that the market condition known as contango, when it is profitable to store oil for later sale and which is seen as an indicator of oversupply, no longer applies.

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Sunday, 13 August 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Crude oil dips in Asia as weekly supply gauges ahead, Japan GDP noted

Crude oil prices fell slightly in Asia on Monday with investors cautious on demand ahead of weekly supply gauges from he U.S., though demand hopes picked up with better than expected second quarter GDP from Japan.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract eased 0.04% to $48.80 a barrel. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery dipped 0.15% to $52.02 a barrel.

In China, fixed-asset investment rose 8.3%, compared with a 8.6% gain seen in July on year along with industrial production which gained 6.4%, missing a 7.2% gain seen and retail sales increased 10.4%, compared to a 10.8% gain seen.

Japan's second quarter surged an unexpected 4..0% on year as investment in plant and equipment lifted sentiment for the sixth straight quarter of expansion, official data released on Monday showed for the fastest pace of growth since January-March 2015.

The figure beat a 2.5% gain expected on year and saw the quarter pace at 1.0, well above the 0.6% seen. Japan, second quarter GDP was expected to rise a provisional 2.5% on year and at a 0.6% pace on quarter.

Ahead this week, the Fed’s latest meeting will be in focus as investors look for more hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. A report on U.S. retail sales will also be closely watched. Elsewhere, UK data on inflation and employment will be in the spotlight amid ongoing concerns over the economic fallout from Brexit.

Last week, oil prices settled higher on Friday, but still ended the week with a loss amid lingering concerns over a global supply glut.

Aside from supply and demand, investors also closely followed developments in the U.S.-North Korea standoff.
The International Energy Agency said OPEC's compliance with the cuts had fallen to 75% last month, the lowest since the deal began in January.

The bearish compliance data comes a day after OPEC released its monthly report, showing production from the group rose further in July, led by gains in Libya and Nigeria, two members exempt from the cuts, and top exporter Saudi Arabia.

OPEC and 10 producers outside the cartel, including Russia, agreed since the start of the year to slash 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018 in order to reduce a global supply glut and rebalance the market.

However, so far, the deal has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, as well as a relentless increase in U.S. shale output.

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Thursday, 10 August 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Crude gains in Asia with U.S. rig count data ahead

Crude gained in Asia on Friday ahead of weekly U.S. rig count figures that will set the near-term tone, though tension on the Korean peninsula and the ability of OPEC and allies to keep output cuts on track retain center stage.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery rose 0.14% to $48.66 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent rose 0.13% to $51.94 a barrel.

Overnight, crude futures settled lower on Thursday, as market participants questioned Opec’s commitment to the global pact to curb production in the wake of a report showing crude output among the group’s members rose in July.

In a monthly report Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its outlook for oil demand this year by 100,000 barrels a day, saying it now expects growth of 1.37 million barrels a day in 2017.

This Opec report stoked fears that Opec and its allies’ may not be able to stem the glut in supplies by only curbing production, offsetting optimism from the prior session, when crude prices snapped a two-day losing streak, following bullish U.S. inventory data.

Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 6.5m barrels in the week ended Aug 4, confounding expectations of a draw of about only 2.5m barrels, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. It was the sixth-straight weekly decline.

The uptick in Opec production comes a few days after the group met in Abu-Dhabi to address concerns of falling compliance. The outcome of the meeting, however, failed to lift sentiment as the group offered little in the way of tangible solutions to increase compliance.

The meeting “proved fruitful and “will help facilitate full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, which participating countries remain steadfast in their commitment to fulfil.” Opec noted in a statement on its website.

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Wednesday, 9 August 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Crude oil narrowly mixed in Asia on caution with Korea tensions

Crude oil prices were narrowly mixed in Asia on Thursday with sentiment cautious on risk on the Korean peninsula and as investors await regular data points on supply and demand globally.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery was flat at $49.56 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent rose 0.06% t$52.73 a barrel.

Overnight, crude futures settled higher on Wednesday, as investors cheered data showing a sharp decline in supplies of U.S. crude but gains were capped by a surprise uptick in gasoline stockpiles.

Crude snapped a two-day losing streak, after a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude stockpiles fell by more than expected last week, pointing to an uptick in refinery activity.

Refiners processed nearly 17.6 million barrels of crude, surpassing a record set in May and the most for any week since the U.S. Department of Energy started keeping data in 1982.

Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 6.5m barrels in the week ended Aug 4, confounding expectations of a draw of about only 2.7m barrels. It was sixth-straight week of falling crude inventories.

Gasoline inventories, one of the products that crude is refined into, unexpectedly rose by roughly 3.4m barrels against expectations of a draw of 1.5m barrels while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.7m barrels, compared to expectations of a decline of 131,000 barrels.

The rise in gasoline stockpiles, however, capped gains in oil prices and confounded investors as the summer driving season is usually associated with an uptick in demand.

The mostly upbeat crude inventory report from the EIA offset earlier negative sentiment, as investors mulled over a statement from Opec concerning the outcome of its meeting on compliance.

The meeting “proved fruitful and “will help facilitate full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, which participating countries remain steadfast in their commitment to fulfill.” Opec noted in a statement on its website.

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Tuesday, 8 August 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Gold gains in Asia on renewed risk sentiment on NKorea tensions

Gold gained in Asia on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula hit risk sentiment.

Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.57% to $1,269.81 a troy ounce.

North Korea said on Wednesday it is "carefully examining" plans for a missile strike on the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump told the North that any threat to the United States would be met with "fire and fury."

Earlier, China reported consumer and producer prices for July with CPI up 0.1%, compared to a 0.2% gain seen on month and at a 1.4% annual pace, compared to an expected 1.5% rise on year. PPI rose 5.5% as expected.

Overnight, gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, pressured by a rebound in the dollar, after U.S. job openings topped forecasts, pointing to an improving labor market, lifting expectations the Federal Reserve will keep to its plan to raise rates at least once more this year.

Gold struggled to hold onto gains, as the dollar hit a nearly two-week high, after U.S. job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased 461,000 to a seasonally adjusted 6.2 million, the highest level since the series started in December 2000, the Labor Department said on Tuesday.

Losses in the precious metal were limited, however, as some Fed members suggested that the slowdown in inflation will continue to weigh on the Fed’s ability to raise rates even if the U.S. job market continues to improve.

"The current level of the policy rate is likely to remain appropriate over the near term," Bullard said on Monday.

The producer price index and the consumer price index data due Thursday and Friday, is expected to provide market participants with fresh insight into the pace of inflation.

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