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Friday, 15 December 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil stable on tighter market, but rising US output looms for 2018

Oil markets were stable on Friday as the Forties pipeline outage in the North Sea and the ongoing OPEC-led production cuts supported prices, while rising output from the United States kept crude from rising further.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $57.13 a barrel at 0119 GMT, up 9 cents from their last settlement.Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $63.35 a barrel, up 4 cents from their last close.

Traders said markets were overall well supported by efforts led by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to withhold supply to prop up prices.The ongoing outage of the Forties pipeline, which carries North Sea oil to Britain, was also buoying crude prices, traders said, as inventories around the world were gradually being drawn down."Inventory drawdowns keep us confident that longer term market fundamentals are headed in the right direction and supply and demand imbalances will pull oil back up to marginal cost," 

The U.S. bank said that the improved market conditions were a result of a higher Brent crude oil price outlook of an expected annual average of $62, $60, and $55 per barrel for 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Gold dips, off one-week high after strong U.S. data

Gold dipped slightly on Thursday, easing off a one-week high as the dollar rebounded following strong U.S. retail sales data, while palladium rose to its highest since February 2001.
U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November as the holiday shopping season got off to a brisk start. have not seen this strong pace of strength for the U.S. retail sales data since 2012," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK."Many went into yesterday's Fed meeting with an expectation for more (interest) rate hikes as opposed to less," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures in Chicago. "This was a technical retracement off yesterday's highs."

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Thursday, 14 December 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Gold Prices Gain In Asia Despite Fed Hike, Inflation Picture Uncertain

Gold prices gained in Asia on a perceived dovish tilt to a Fed rate hik overnight and as economists grapple with inflation outlook with the US reaching nearly full employment by conventional measures.Gold futures for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.86% to $1,259.30 a troy ounce.China reported industrial production for November came in at a gain of 6.1%, compared with a 6.2% rise seen followed by retail sales which rose 10.2%, compared to a 10.3% rise expected and fixed asset investment came in up 7.2% as seen.

The Federal Reserve approved its third rate hike of 2017, and forecasts further rate hikes despite growing concerns over the slow pace of inflation.Fed officials also expressed optimism in the economy, hiking their projection for economic growth in 2017 to 2.5%, while growth in 2018 was expected to rise to 2.5%, a 0.4% increase from the Fed’s September projections.The report raised investor expectations for ongoing bullish economic growth, lifting sentiment on risker assets like equities.

Also supporting an uptick were comments from Trump, who said he hopes to sign the tax bill “in a very short period of time”, and stressed that it was “very important for the country” that Congress vote on it next week.Overnight, gold prices steadied as the dollar came under pressure following the release of timid inflation data which dampened investor expectations for a faster pace of rate hikes next year.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

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Wednesday, 13 December 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil recovers on big U.S. crude stock drawdown

Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday as industry data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles.Brent crude LCOc1 was up 50 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $63.84 a barrel by 0152 GMT. It had settled down $1.35, or 2.1 percent, at $63.34 on Tuesday on a wave of profit-taking after news of a key North Sea pipeline shutdown helped send the global benchmark above $65 for the first time since mid-2015. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 36 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $57.50 a barrel, having earlier settled down 85 cents at $57.14.

After settlement on Tuesday, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said crude stocks in the United States fell by 7.4 million barrels last week. That is almost twice the decline of analysts' expectations for a decline of 3.8 million barrels. API/S EIA/S Gasoline stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.5 million-barrel gain. Distillate fuels stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 902,000-barrel gain, the API data showed.

The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration releases its weekly oil report later on Wednesday.Selling had gained pace on Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly short-term energy outlook that U.S. crude oil output will rise by 780,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record-high of 10.02 million bpd in 2018. some analysts said that despite the projected rise in U.S. production, oil prices are likely to see further upward momentum given planned output curbs by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a rise in global oil demand.

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Monday, 11 December 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Crude Oil Gains Solidly In Asia On UK Pipeline Outage, API Estimates Awaited

Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Tuesday led by Brent crossing $65 a barrel for the first time since 2015 as a shutdown of a key pipeline led to a spike in the global benchmark and investors looked ahead to US industry inventory estimates on crude and refined products.On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for January delivery rose 0.41% to $58.23 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent gained 0.56% to trade at $65.08 a barrel.The American Petroleum Institute reports its estimates of US crude and refined product stocks last week with a 3.780 million barrels draw in crude and a build of 416,000 barrels in distillates and a 2.184 million barrels gain in gasoline supplies expected.

The estimates will be followed on Wednesday by official data from the Energy Information Administration.Overnight, Brent oil prices settled sharply higher on Monday amid supply disruptions after a major North Sea pipeline shut for repairs, while signs of rising US production capped gains in crude oil prices.The Brent-WTI spread rose to the widest since October, as Brent prices surge after the shutdown of the Forties pipeline, which carries 40% of North Sea oil and gas, sparked expectations of tightening supply.The shutdown comes four days after the pipeline operating capacity was cut following reports of “small” leak last week.

In the U.S., meanwhile, gains in the WTI crude oil futures were somewhat capped amid signs of growing output from US producers.The number of oil rigs operating in the US rose for the third consecutive week, said oil field services company Baker Hughes on Friday.The weekly rig count is an important barometer for the drilling industry and serves as a proxy for oil production and oil services demand. A higher rig count tends to signal a further rise in U.S. production.Earlier in the session oil prices shrugged off somewhat bearish comments from UAE Energy Minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, who said OPEC and non-OPEC producers plan to announce in June an exit strategy from global supply cuts but stressed that the pact would not end by then.

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Sunday, 10 December 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Gold Prices Dip in Asia With Fed Language Seen Crucial For Direction

Gold prices dipped in Asia on Monday with the market prepared to listen closely to the Fed commentary this week after it reviews rates and in particular language on the impact of expected tax cuts.Gold futures for February delivery rose 0.11% to $1,249.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to hike interst rates by a quarter point. The European Central Bank, Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are also due to hold monetary policy meetings, although no changes are expected.

Last week, gold prices fell to a four-month low on Friday and posted the largest weekly fall since May after Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report underlined expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting.The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported, surpassing the 200,000 forecast by economists, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% for a second consecutive month.Wages rose 0.2% for the month, and 2.5% from a year ago, which was below forecasts of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively.The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates at this week’s monetary policy meeting and is currently seen tightening two to three times next year, but concerns over tepid wage growth could alter the outlook for 2018.

Expectations for higher interest rates are typically negative for gold as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets like Treasury’s when borrowing costs rise.A weaker dollar typically tends to support gold, which is denominated in the U.S. currency and becomes more affordable to foreign buyers when the dollar declines.

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Thursday, 7 December 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Crude Oil Prices Mostly Steady After China Trade Figures, US Rig Count Eyed

Crude oil prices were nearly flat in Asia on Friday as strong Chinese trade data failed to lift the market and investors looked ahead to US weekly rig count figures.On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for January delivery was flat at $56.69 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent edged up 0.05% to $62.23 a barrel.China's trade balance hit $40.21 billion in November, official data on Friday showed, wider than the $35 billion expected while imports jumped 17.7%, surpassing an 11.3% gain seen and exports rose 12.3%, better than the 5.0% gain expected.China yuan trade figures showed January to November crude imports up 12% to 386 million metric tons, while November crude oil imports reached 36.92 million metric tons.

Overnight, crude oil prices settled higher on Thursday as a threatened strike in Nigeria and growing Middle East political tensions stoked fears of supply disruptions, while ongoing OPEC-led output curbs supported sentiment.One of Nigeria’s two main oil unions on Thursday threatened to launch a nationwide strike from Dec. 18 should the government fail to force the management of domestic oil and gas companies to recall laid-off union members.That added to fears of potential supply disruptions in the wake of growing Middle East political tensions after Saudi Arabia called for a review of US President Donald Trump’s decision to direct the State Department to begin preparations to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

The rebound in oil prices comes a day after crude settled nearly 3% lower on data showing US inventories of refined fuel rose sharply last week, pointing to possible weakness in demand. The uptick in gasoline supplies offset a larger-than-expected draw in crude stockpiles which fell for a third straight week, while U.S. crude production rose to a weekly record.

US oil production rose to its highest since the early 1980s as data US producers ramp up production to 9.7 million barrels per day last week. day last week.Sentiment on crude oil remained bullish as market participants continue to expect output-led production curbs would rein in excess global supplies to OPEC’s five year-average.

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Wednesday, 6 December 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil edges up as U.S. crude stocks fall, but soaring output weighs

Oil prices inched higher on Thursday after a data report showed a decrease in U.S. crude inventories, but rising gasoline stocks and crude production weighed on the market.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $56.18 a barrel at 0424 GMT, up 22 cents, or 0.4 percent from their last settlement.Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $61.49 a barrel, up 27 cents, or 0.44 percent.Traders said the higher prices came as U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels in the week to Dec. 1, to 448.1 million barrels C-STK-T-EIA , putting stocks below seasonal levels in 2015 and 2016. API/S EIA/S

Traders were more concerned about the steep rise in gasoline inventories," U.S. crude production C-OUT-T-EIA climbed by 25,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 9.71 million bpd, the highest since monthly figures showing the United States produced more than 10 million bpd in the early 1970s. U.S. output threatens to undermine efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to bring production and demand into balance following years of oversupply. Vijayakar, managing director of energy consultancy Trifecta warned there were "darker shadows over the pace of rebalancing, if at all any is taking place."

Gold Edges Down In Asia With Market Awaiting Fed Next Week

Gold prices eased slightly in Asia on Thursday with the market awaiting comment from the Fed at next week's review of policy and any language on what looks like a US tax cut package passed before the end of the year.Gold futures for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slipped 0.03% to $1,265.70 a troy ounce.Elsewhere, Middle East tension rose as President Donald Trump breaks with decades of US foreign policy, saying he's directing the State Department to begin preparations to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.Benjamin Netanyahu says in a statement that Israel is "profoundly grateful" and that Trump's announcement is an "important step toward peace." Saudi Arabia called for an immediate review of the decision and said there could be dangerous consequences.

Overnight, gold prices hovered above six-week lows on Wednesday as dollar strength continued after uncertainty over a possible US government shutdown eased, reducing investor demand for safe-haven gold.Gold prices struggled to hold onto gains as fears over a possible government shutdown eased amid reports that the GOP leadership in the House and Senate want to pass a bill that would extend the government shutdown deadline to Dec. 22 from Dec. 8.

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