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Friday, 25 May 2018

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Oil prices fell about $3 per barrel on Friday as Saudi Arabia and Russia discussed easing supply curbs that have helped push crude prices to their highest since 2014.
Brent crude futures fell $2.69, or 3.4 percent, to $76.10 a barrel by 1:07 p.m. EDT (1707 GMT). The contract hit its highest since late 2014 at $80.50 last week. Brent was on track to fall about 3.1 percent this week, which would be its largest weekly percentage loss since early April.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $3.04 to $67.67 a barrel, a 4.3 percent loss. Following six weeks of gains, WTI was set to lose about 5.1 percent for the week, which would be its biggest loss since early February.
The discount of WTI to Brent hit $8.53 per barrel, its widest since May 17, and not far off levels last seen three years ago.
The energy ministers of Russia and Saudi Arabia met in St. Petersburg to review the terms of a global oil supply pact that has been in place for 17 months, ahead of a key OPEC meeting in Vienna next month.
The ministers, along with their counterpart from the United Arab Emirates, discussed an output increase of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd), sources told Reuters.
Russia's energy minister said oil ministers from OPEC states and non-OPEC countries participating in a deal to cut output would likely decide to gradually ease curbs at their meeting in Vienna next month.
"Different options will be put forward. But, it is likely that this will be a gradual easing," Alexander Novak said in comments published on the Russian energy ministry website on Friday.
Global crude inventories have fallen over the past year because of the OPEC-led cuts, which were boosted by a dramatic drop in Venezuelan production.
This comes even as U.S. crude production has risen. The United States in February produced 10.3 million bpd, a record.
The US oil rig count rose by 15 to 859 in the week to May 25, the highest level since March 2015, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said.
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Thursday, 24 May 2018

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Gold Prices Slip Amid Firmer Dollar -   Gold prices slipped on Friday as the dollar firmed against the other major currencies in Asia in late morning trade Friday, with the U.S. dollar index testing the 94 level. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, stood at 93.83, up 0.11%. This week the greenback climbed to its highest level for the year when the index hit 94.10 on Wednesday night. The greenback was not hit by Trump's decision to call off the June 12 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, a move that may reignite geopolitical tensions in the region. The White House released a letter by Trump to Kim, in which the U.S. president regarding the cancelled summit. Trump cited “tremendous anger and open hostility” in recent statements from Pyongyang and called the outcome a setback for both North Korea and the world. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – a gain in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus decreases demand for the precious metal.

 SMM Lead Zinc Summit: China to consume more secondary lead - China’s secondary lead consumption is likely to exceed primary lead consumption in the future as recycling resources gains importance, said Gao Fue, director of renewable resources at Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead Group. The consumption ratio of secondary and primary lead is expected to be 7:4, from the current ratio of 1:2, Gao told delegates at the SMM Lead Zinc Summit on Friday May 25 in Nanning, Guangxi. But primary lead is unlikely to be completely replaced, even as secondary resources gains market share. Affected by environmental concerns, technical requirements and limited resource reserves, output of primary lead ore mining is shrinking in China. Lead ore resources are poor in China, with most ore reserves containing lower grade ores. There are also few, large reserves in China. Reserves are estimated to deplete after four years.

Oil Prices Dip On Potential Increase In Russian Output - Oil prices edged lower on Friday morning in Asia as Russia hinted it may increase output. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as a group of non-OPEC producers led by Russia started withholding output in 2017 to boost oil prices and clear a supply glut. The group had agreed to curb their output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd). But Russia, in particular, has shown eagerness to end the production cuts, with energy minister Alexander Novak saying on Thursday that restrictions on oil production could be eased “softly” if OPEC and non-OPEC countries see the oil market balancing in June. OPEC and some non-OPEC major oil producers are scheduled to meet in Vienna on June 22. Any signs that the group may be heading towards an early exit from the production cut agreement would weigh on prices.


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Gold gains as the U.S. dollar backed off its highs while investors interpreted minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting as dovish -   Gold on MCX settled up 0.24% at 31183 as the U.S. dollar backed off its highs while investors interpreted minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting as dovish. The Federal Reserve continues to project two more rate hikes are on the way this year with three more on the way for 2019, according to the minutes of their most recent meeting. There was no interest rate hike at the May meeting, but policy makers debated the threat of inflation and acknowledged trade-related uncertainties. The Fed has raised interest rates six times since the financial crisis, and another quarter-point rate hike in June is universally expected. "Most participants judged that if incoming information broadly confirmed their economic outlook, it would likely soon be appropriate for the FOMC to take another step in removing policy accommodation," the minutes said. Gold also saw some safe-haven support after President Sergio Mattarella gave political novice Giuseppe Conte a mandate to lead the first government in Italy made up of anti-establishment parties that have vowed to shake up the European Union.

 Yunnan aluminium hydropower project to be commissioned in June - The first stage of a hydropower project to produce and process aluminium in Zhaotong, Yunnan province, is expected to be commissioned in June, SMM learned. With an investment of 3.5 billion yuan and annual capacity of 350,000 mt of aluminium products including aluminium bars and flat ingots, the entire project is estimated to be commissioned in 2018. Over 5 billion kWh of power is forecast to be consumed every year. Annual revenues are likely to stand at 4.5 billion yuan. Hydropower is more environmentally-friendly than fossil fuels as carbon emissions from hydropower is significantly lower. China's inventory of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants, shrank to 2.08 million mt as of Thursday May 24 due to fewer deliveries to warehouses and stable downstream consumption, according to SMM data.

Oil Prices Drop On Potential Increase In OPEC Output - Oil prices continued to fall on Thursday morning in Asia, as markets took into account the possibility of higher output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).In the face of worries over supply from both Venezuela and Iran, OPEC members could step up production as soon as June. Production in Venezuela plunged to 1.5 million barrels last month, its lowest level in decades due to its ongoing economic crisis. Geopolitical risks caused by Washington’s exit from a nuclear arms control deal with Tehran have driven prices to multi-year highs, with Brent breaking through $80 last week for the first time since November 2014. Meanwhile, Libya, an OPEC member, cut its oil production by about 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) as unusually hot weather prompted power problems. In response to concerns from Washington over a rally in oil prices, OPEC may decide to increase oil output to make up for the reduced supply.


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Tuesday, 22 May 2018

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Gold Prices Little Changed Amid Firmer Dollar -   Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as the dollar held on to gains after climbing to a fresh new high this year on Monday. Investors now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s minutes that will come on Thursday in Asia to look for cues for rate hikes. The dollar was also supported by the continued rise of U.S. 10-year Treasury yields that hit 3% recently and expectations for interest rates. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – a gain in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus decreases demand for the precious metal. Although not a major directional driver, geopolitical tension was in focus as U.S. President Donald Trump casted doubt on the upcoming historic summit with North Korea in June. “There’s a chance, a very substantial chance, it won’t work out,” Trump said during a meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Tuesday. “I don’t want to waste a lot of time and I’m sure he doesn’t want to waste a lot of time. So there’s a very substantial chance it won’t work out and that’s OK. That doesn’t mean it won’t work out over a period of time.”

 Copper rose with prices underpinned as the chance of a U.S.-China trade war appeared to fade - Copper on MCX settled up 0.89% at 472 gained on fresh buying tracking international maraket where Shanghai Copper hit a one-week high, with prices underpinned as the chance of a U.S.-China trade war appeared to fade. Shanghai lead futures jumped 3.6 percent to their highest since October, tracking last session’s gains on the London Metal Exchange. Washington and Beijing both claimed victory on Monday as the world’s two largest economies stepped back from the brink of a global trade war and agreed to hold further talks to boost U.S. exports to China. Support also seen after the number from China showed China’s economy likely expand by around 6.7 percent in the second quarter this year, the State Information Center said on Saturday. Copper was also supported by trouble at a Vedanta Resources-controlled copper smelter in southern India, where at least nine people were killed on Tuesday after police fired at protesters calling for the plant's closure.

Oil Prices Dip With Possible Easing of OPEC Supply Curbs - Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday morning in Asia, as markets considered the possibility of higher output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).OPEC may decide to raise oil output as soon as June due to worries over Iranian and Venezuelan supply and after Washington raised concerns the oil rally was going too far. Concerns about a potential drop in Iranian oil exports following Washington’s exit from a nuclear arms control deal with Tehran have driven prices to multi-year highs. U.S. sanctions against Iran, which currently produces 4% of global oil supplies, may cause shortages later this year when trade restrictions take effect. On Monday, the U.S. demanded Iran make sweeping changes - from dropping its nuclear program to pulling out of the Syrian civil war - or face severe economic sanctions.Tehran dismissed Washington’s ultimatum.


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Gold prices rose from lows on dollar weakness but remained under pressure amid easing trade war fears and signs of waning demand for the yellow metal -   Gold on MCX settled up 0.07% at 31112 as prices recovered from lows on dollar weakness but remained under pressure amid easing trade war fears and signs of waning demand for the yellow metal. The world's two largest economies stepped back from the brink of a global trade war and agreed to hold further talks aimed at boosting U.S. exports to China. The yellow metal is also being weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve will lift U.S. interest rates again next month. Higher interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive to investors. Washington and Beijing both claimed victory as the world's two largest economies stepped back from the brink of a global trade war and agreed to hold further talks to boost U.S. exports to China.

Copper edged higher after China and the United States put their trade row on hold, easing concerns the dispute could escalate - Copper on MCX settled up 1.23% at 467.85 after China and the United States put their trade row on hold, easing concerns the dispute could escalate, although headwinds from a stronger dollar capped gains. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin declared the U.S. trade war with China “on hold” following an agreement to drop tariff threats that had roiled global markets this year. China’s economy will likely expand by around 6.7 percent in the second quarter this year, the State Information Center said. In a session with no major economic reports stateside, market participants will focus their attention on appearances from Federal Reserve policymakers as they seek to gauge plans for policy tightening. Now the focus this week will undoubtedly be on Fed chairman Jerome Powell who will participate in a panel discussion of "Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency" at the Sveriges Riskbank Conference in Stockholm, Sweden on Friday.

Oil prices edge up on Venezuela, Iran supply worries - Oil prices rose on Tuesday on concerns that Venezuela's crude output could drop further following a disputed presidential election and potential U.S. sanctions on the OPEC-member. The United States also toughened its stance on Iran and made a list of sweeping demands, which could further curb the country's crude oil exports and boost oil prices."(Oil inventory) is tight and the U.S. will probably tighten sanctions on Venezuela which will make the Venezuela situation worse and which means we can expect continued falling Venezuelan production," said Tony Nunan, oil risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo.

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Sunday, 20 May 2018

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Rising Rates, Euro Worries and Trade War Concerns are Today’s Market Drivers -   Besides rising U.S. interest rates, gold could be pressured on Friday by further weakness in the Euro. The single-currency is headed for its fifth successive weekly decline versus the dollar, in what would be a first for the currency since 2015, as political uncertainty in Italy continued to worry investors. Gold futures are trading lower early Friday, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar. Renewed geopolitical tensions over North Korea may be encouraging some buying. Additionally, there are also worries over an escalation of tensions between the United States and China over trade issues. However, unless these stories lead to elevated concerns, rising interest rates will be the main driver of the bearish price action.

 Ten companies approved for copper scrap imports in 12th batch of approvals - The operating rates across China's zinc oxide plants are likely to dip in May, an SMM survey showed. This is due to the month-long environmental inspections in Jiangsu province since late April, and intensified inspections ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Qingdao, Shandong province, in June. Hebei and Jiangsu border Shandong in the north and south, respectively. Most of China's zinc oxide production is located in these three provinces and account for more than half of China's capacity.

Operating rates at zinc oxide plants to dip in May - China's inventory of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants, shrank to 2.12 million mt as of Monday May 21 due to stable downstream consumption, according to SMM data. The inventory was down 20,000 mt from 2.14 million mt on Thursday May 17 and down 32,000 mt from 2.25 million mt a week ago. The week-on-week decline was slower from 58,000 mt last Thursday.

Oil Prices Rise As China, U.S. Put Trade War On Hold - Oil prices rose on Monday morning in Asia, boosted by news that China and the U.S. have put a looming trade war “on hold”.The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies is “on hold” after they agreed to drop their tariff threats while they work on a wider trade agreement, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Sunday. The news gave global markets a lift in early trading on Monday. Brent crude crept ever closer to $80 per barrel, a level it has not seen since November 2014, as supplies tightened while demand remained strong. Traders expect the trade dispute to de-escalate over time through negotiation. However, geopolitical risks continue to prop up prices. Markets remain on edge due to looming U.S. sanctions against Iran that may cause shortages in oil supplies later this year when trade restrictions take effect. Iran currently produces 4% of global oil supplies.



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