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Thursday, 27 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil prices fall on lingering oversupply concerns

Oil prices dipped on Thursday, weighed down by a general sentiment of globally bloated markets, though traders said that prices seemed to have found support around current levels.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $49.34 per barrel at 0137 GMT, down 28 cents, or 0.56 percent from their last close. WTI has lost around 8.5 percent in value from its April peak.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $51.58 per barrel, down 24 cents, or 0.46 percent, from their last close. Brent is almost 9 percent below its April peak.

Traders said that the falls in recent weeks were a result of a realisation that global oil markets remained oversupplied, despite efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year in order to tighten the market and prop up prices. is clear that the world has plenty of oil in stock, making OPEC's life that much harder ahead of its June production cut rollover date,"

While the United States reported a drop in its commercial crude oil stocks on Wednesday, albeit from near-record highs, its gasoline inventories surged as refiners produced more fuel than the market could consume. with an expectation that OPEC would lobby for an extension of the production cuts to cover all of 2017, analysts said there was support for prices around current levels.

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Tuesday, 25 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Gold slips to 2-wk lows as rallying equities boost risk appetite

Gold dipped on Wednesday to a two-week low after a near 1 per cent decline in the previous session as increased investor appetite for risk boosted equities and dulled demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold slipped 0.2 per cent to $1,261.36 per ounce by 0055 GMT. Prices touched a low of 1,260.90 earlier in the session, the lowest since April 11.

Bullion fell 0.9 per cent on Tuesday, the biggest one-day decline since early March.

US gold futures were down 0.3 per cent at $1,262.90 an ounce.

Asian stocks extended gains for a fifth straight day on Wednesday as Wall Street hit new peaks.

The US military started moving parts of the controversial THAAD anti-missile defence system to a deployment site in South Korea on Wednesday amid high tensions over North Korea's missile and nuclear programmes.

US consumer confidence fell from a more than 16-year high in April, but a surge in new home sales to an eight-month high last month suggested underlying strength in the economy.

The threat of a US government shutdown this weekend appeared to recede on Tuesday after President Donald Trump backed away from a demand that Congress include funding for his planned border wall with Mexico in a spending bill.

Goldman Sachs, in a note on Monday, said it continues to expect gold to come under pressure in the near term on a potential rally in real interest rates following the expected unveiling of President Trump's tax policies on Wednesday or later.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.69 per cent to 854.25 tonnes on Tuesday.

Barrick Gold gave details on Tuesday of $500 million worth of improvements and expansions it is planning at its Veladero mine in Argentina over the next five years.

The price of silver will likely climb in 2017 and over the next several years, following through on 2016's gains on renewed investor interest in precious metals, CPM Group said on Tuesday.

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Monday, 24 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil edges up after six days of straight losses

Oil prices inched up on Monday but markets remain under pressure following six consecutive sessions of losses as traders lose confidence that pledged output cuts by major producers will rein in oversupply in a world awash with fuel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures added 21 cents, or 0.4 percent, by 0123 GMT, but remained below the $50 mark pierced late last week, at $49.44 a barrel.

Brent crude futures rose 23 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $51.83 per barrel.

Traders said the slight gains were a counter-reaction to consecutive price drops in the previous six sessions.

Despite Tuesdays small price rises, overall market sentiment has turned bearish, with Brent down nearly 10 percent since the end of December despite an effort led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017 in order to tighten the market.

"It is evident that ... crude markets are still struggling to clear (oversupply)," U.S. bank JPMorgan said in its latest weekly oil market update to clients.

The bank said that it was closing its "August Brent long position at a loss," and that it "will review macro balances in the coming weeks before initiating further trades."

Indicating that the bank's view on markets had turned bearish, JP Morgan said that "crude markets are close to floating storage economics and (this) is a bearish sign for output price developments."

Floating storage is seen as a clear indicator of oversupplied markets. It is pursued when oil for immediate delivery is so much cheaper than that for future delivery that it becomes profitable for traders to charter tankers to store crude for sale at a later date.

"There is further short-term downside to prices," JPMorgan said, adding that in order to reduce the ongoing supply overhang, OPEC "will be forced to renew, and possibly deepen the agreement if they wish to keep prices much above $50 per barrel."

Russia said on Monday that its oil output could climb to the highest rate in 30 years if OPEC and non-OPEC producers do not extend a supply reduction deal beyond June 30.

Thomson Reuters Eikon data shows that Russian oil shipments, which exclude its pipeline exports, have already reached record highs of 5 million bpd in April, up 17 percent since December, before the cuts were officially implemented.

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Sunday, 23 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil recovers some lost ground, but market remains under pressure

Oil prices recovered some ground on Monday following last week's big losses, driven by expectations that OPEC will extend a pledge to cut output to cover all of 2017, although a relentless rise in US drilling capped gains.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures added 23 cents, or 0.5 percent, by 0037 GMT, but were still below the $50 mark pierced on Friday at $49.85 a barrel.

Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $52.23 per barrel.

Oil prices fell steeply last week on the back of stubbornly high crude supplies, despite a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some other producers to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from Jan. 1 to support the market.

U.S. drillers added oil rigs for a 14th week in a row, to 688 rigs, extending an 11-month recovery that is expected to boost U.S. shale production in May by the biggest monthly increase in more than two years.

U.S. crude pruduction is at 9.25 million barrels per day (bpd), up almost 10 percent since mid-2016 and approaching that of OPEC's top exporter Saudi Arabia.

"WTI oil slipped back below the $50 per barrel level, amid concerns that the lack of inventory drawdown since the OPEC production cuts is a sign that the cuts are not enough to rebalance supply and demand and put a floor under prices," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Rivkin Securities in a note on Monday.

Both the Brent and WTI oil benchmarks are down more than 7.5 percent since the end of last year.

Iran's crude oil exports are set to hit a 14-month low in May, suggesting the country is struggling to raise exports after clearing out stocks stored on tankers.

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Friday, 21 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips

Gold climbs quietly as investors wary ahead of French vote

Gold prices rose slightly on Friday as investors awaited the first-round of voting in the presidential French election at the weekend and possible announcements about tax changes in the United States.Spot gold XAU= was up 0.3 percent at $1,284.62 an ounce by 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT), on track to close the week little changed after five straight weeks higher.U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.4 percent at $1,289.10.

"The big news over the weekend will be the French election and the market will be to an extent on hold ahead of that," said Mitsubishi commodities analyst Jonathan Butler.There was potential for safe-haven buying of gold after France said security forces were fully mobilized for the weekend vote after an Islamist militant killed a policeman Thursday night. the near term, if the geopolitical tensions intensify, there is a chance that gold prices will reach $1,300 or more,"

A move in gold above $1,290/91 would be significant as it would break above a downtrend that has been in place since gold touched an all-time high of $1,920.30 in 2011, Butler said."You would have thought with the Champs-Elysees attack that you would have got a little more safe-haven buying ahead of the French election," said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist for U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Seattle.

"If you're in the gold market, there's already stretched speculation and there's not a lot of new news to drive it. So in the meantime it's probably time for a bit of a pause,"

Investors were also watching events in Washington. President Donald Trump's administration will unveil a tax reform plan soon and expects it will be approved by Congress this year, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday. is at risk of some profit-taking after a strong recent run, but should be supported by other factors, analysts said.

"Gold struggled to hold this week's gains as the dollar strengthened and concerns over global risk eased. However, selling was relatively muted, which suggests a period of consolidation is now upon us," ANZ analysts wrote in a note.Spot silver XAG= slipped 0.6 percent to $17.89 an ounce, extending losses into a fifth session, having shed more than 3 percent so far this week despite tapping a five-month high on Monday.

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Thursday, 20 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil markets remain cautious on record supplies

Oil opened the last day of a choppy trading week on a cautious note over doubts that an OPEC-led production cut was having the desired effect of restoring balance to a market that has been dogged by oversupply for more than two years.

Brent crude futures were at $53.07 per barrel at 0113 GMT, up 8 cents from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures had risen 8 cents to $50.79 a barrel.

The stable prices came after a more-than-3.5 percent fall in both benchmarks earlier this week as doubts emerged over the effect of an effort led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year.

The market is taking note: The value of the entire Brent forward curve <0> has slumped steadily since the start of the OPEC-led cuts in January. The average monthly value of a 24-month Brent curve is down by more than $4 per barrel since January to around $54.15 a barrel.

The high supplies are in part a result of other producers, who haven't agreed to cut output, increasing their exports.

"The resurgence of U.S shale continues to sabotage the cartel's efforts to stabilise the saturated markets," said Lukman Otunuga, analyst at futures brokerage FXTM.

U.S. production is soaring, jumping by almost 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.25 million bpd . This brings its output close to the world's top two producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Attempting to prevent a further ballooning in supplies, some OPEC producers including de-facto leader Saudi Arabia are lobbying to extend the pledge to cut production beyond June.

To determine the health of oil markets, analysts say it is important to monitor inventory levels.

Yet outside the United States, where data is plentiful and still shows bloated inventories , reliable data is difficult to come by.

There is some suggestion that OPEC has been selling oil out of its own stocks in order to meet customer demand despite some production cuts it made earlier this year.

And fuel inventories around Asia's oil trading hub of Singapore have also fallen, although it is not clear whether this is to meet strong demand or if this is to create storage space in anticipation of more supplies coming.

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Wednesday, 19 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Gold steady on geopolitical worries amid firmer dollar

Gold prices held firm on Thursday after falling as much as 1 percent the previous day, with tensions surrounding North Korea and the upcoming French presidential
election driving safe-haven demand amid a firmer dollar.

Spot gold was mostly unchanged at $1,278.64 per ounce at 0346 GMT. The metal fell 0.8 percent on Wednesday in its worst one-day drop in over a month.

"Sentiment overall is that everybody is looking for $1,300 at least by the end of the week. Sentiment around geopolitical issues is really playing on people's minds," said Spencer
Campbell, general manager with Kaloti Precious Metals in Singapore.

"We are seeing a lot more physical purchasing, with shops seeing a 100-percent increase in buying from the retail sector,"said Campbell.

"This clearly shows the pull back is an opportunity (to buy gold before it climbs above $1,300)."
   
Analysts and traders said gold would be supported by simmering geopolitical tensions around North Korea and nervousness ahead of the first round of France's presidential
election.                        
 
"With this weekend's French Presidential vote event risk, it is hard to see gold forming a meaningful correction to the downside before next week at the earliest," said Jeffrey Halley,
senior market analyst at OANDA.
   
"Safe-haven buying should continue to support any dips."Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 1.39 percent on
Wednesday, their biggest one day gain since early September 2016. Holdings climbed nearly 12 tonnes from Tuesday to 860.76
tonnes.        
   
Meanwhile, spot silver gained 0.2 percent to $18.11.Platinum rose 0.3 percent to $965.29, while palladium was up 0.5 percent at $779.10.

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