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Thursday, 1 December 2016

Best Commodity Tips

Volatile moves seen in Gold ahead of near month expiry

Gold eased further as the latest corrective moves turned into a sustained downward slide. Traders are worried about the retail demand getting hit in cash squeezed Indian retail markets. First few days of a new month normally see labor payments and a lot of cash is circulated in the economy as people pay up for their monthly grocery bills and other maintenance expenses.

The country is still facing a heavy cash crunch Gold demand is unlikely to pick up in such a scenario. COMEX Gold is currently quoting off at its 10 month low. Prices are hovering at $ 1,176 per ounce, up 0.6 percent on the day.

MCX Gold futures for February 2017 took a heavy tumbled and closed under the key Rs 28,000 per 10 grams mark. The overall scenario is volatile as the near month December futures are set to expire on Monday. The US nonfarm payrolls data would also be keenly watched.

Meanwhile, latest amendments to the I-T law in India do not seek to tax inherited gold and jewellery as also those items that are purchased through disclosed or agriculture income, the government said on Thursday. The Lok Sabha earlier this week passed the Taxation Laws (Second Amendment) Bill, which proposes a steep up to 85 percent tax and penalty on undisclosed wealth that is discovered by tax authorities during search and seizure.

The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) clarified that the government has not introduced any new provision regarding chargeability of tax on jewellery.The jewellery/gold purchased out of disclosed income or out of exempted income like agricultural income or out of reasonable household savings or legally inherited which has been acquired out of explained sources is neither chargeable to tax under the existing provisions nor under the proposed amended provisions.

During search operations, conducted by I-T Department, there would be no seizure of gold jewellery and ornaments to the extent of 500 grams per married women, 250 gm per unmarried women as also 100 gm per male member of the family.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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Wednesday, 30 November 2016

Best Commodity Tips


Oil, dollar and bond yields sharply higher after OPEC deal

Crude prices, the dollar and bond yields were sharply elevated early on Thursday after OPEC agreed to a deal to reduce output to clear a supply glut that has crunched oil prices and stoked global deflationary pressures. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday agreed to its first output cut since 2008, with Saudi Arabia accepting "a big hit" on its production. Non-OPEC Russia will also join output reductions for the first time in 15 years to help OPEC prop up oil prices.

US crude oil soared more than 9 percent overnight to a one-month high just shy of USD 50.00 a barrel. The contracts were a fraction lower at USD 49.22 a barrel early on Thursday. Brent crude were just above USD 51.00 a barrel after rallying to a six-week peak of USD 52.37.

The jump in oil prices added to inflation expectations in the United States, which were already high on prospects that president-elect Donald Trump would enact reflationary policies funded by large fiscal stimulus.

As a result US Treasuries resumed their rout, with prices sliding and yields spiking, to send the dollar rallying against its peers. The yield on 30-year bonds , which are most sensitive to inflation eroding their value, climbed about 9 basis points to 2.39 percent overnight, taking it back towards 14-month peaks marked last week.

The dollar touched a 9-1/2-month high of 114.830 yen, adding to gains made overnight when it surged 1.8 percent. The euro was steady at USD 1.0596 after shedding 0.6 percent the previous day.

Spot gold was firm at USD 1,172.46 an ounce after sliding 1.3 percent overnight to a 10-month low of USD 1,170.35 on the dollar's oil-induced surge.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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Tuesday, 29 November 2016

Best Commodity Tips

Gold up on safe haven buying, markets brace for OPEC meeting

Gold rose on Wednesday as 'risk on' sentiment took a backseat, with investors booking profits in the dollar and bracing for the outcome of an OPEC meeting later in the day aimed at curbing crude output. Spot gold rose 0.4 percent at USD 1,192.74 an ounce by 0233 GMT.

US gold futures were up 0.3 percent at USD 1,191.40 per ounce.

"We have the OPEC meeting today, non-farm payrolls Friday and Italian referendum this weekend. There's a bit of underlying bid in gold because of risks coming through the next few days," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA brokerage in Singapore.

"There's a bit of buying with some general profit taking on the long dollar positions,"

Oil markets were jittery on Wednesday ahead of an OPEC meeting later in the day, with members of the producer cartel trying to thrash out an output cut to curb oversupply that has seen prices more than halve since 2014.

The dollar moved sideways against the yen and euro early on Wednesday, as traders focused on the oil producers meeting, which could potentially churn financial markets and weigh on the US currency.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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Monday, 28 November 2016

Best Commodity Tips

Gold edges lower, market focus turns to OPEC

Gold edged lower on Tuesday as the US dollar steadied, with markets on edge ahead of a meeting this week that could see oil producers curb output. Spot gold was down 0.36 percent at USD 1,189.10 an ounce by 0334 GMT. It gained 0.9 percent in the previous session.

US gold futures were 0.2-percent lower at USD 1,188.50 per ounce. "People will be likely watching the OPEC meeting. If the meeting leads to higher oil prices, that should have some inflationary pressure across the global economies, especially the US and that could lead to lower gold prices," said Barnabas Gan, analyst at OCBC Bank in Singapore.

Oil prices fell early on Tuesday on doubts over a meaningful output cut during Wednesday's meeting. Gold edged lower in early trade on a firm US dollar, said MKS PAMP Group trader Jason Cerisola. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was steady at 101.390

Gold prices have fallen over USD 140 an ounce from their post-US election peak on Nov. 9 after a surge in US Treasury yields had sent the dollar to its highest in nearly 14 years.

Global growth will pick up faster than expected in the coming months as the US President-elect Donald Trump administration's planned tax cuts and public spending fire up the US economy, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Monday (OECD).

Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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Sunday, 27 November 2016

Best Commodity Tips,

Oil tumbles as output cut looks elusive; dollar sinks

The dollar and U.S. bond yields fell on Monday as investors reversed a "Trumpflation" trade that has gripped markets since the U.S. elections, after oil prices slid on fears that producer countries meeting this week could fail to agree an output cut.

Though Brent crude futures last traded at $47.02 per barrel (LCOc1), almost flat on the day, prices had been down by as much as 2.0 percent in early Asian trade, following on from a 3.6 percent fall on Friday as doubts arose over whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reach a deal later this week.

Prospects of reduced upward pressure on inflation from oil prices, prompted investors to temper expectations for rises in U.S. interest rates, bring down treasury yields and the dollar

That gave some relief to Asian shares, which had underperformed on worries about capital flight to higher-yielding U.S markets in the weeks since Donald Trump's Nov.8 election win.

In contrast, U.S. stock futures (ESc1) slipped 0.2 percent after their stellar performance this month on hopes President-elect Trump's policy of fiscal spending, deregulation and protection of domestic industries will boost U.S. inflation and benefit Corporate America.

"It will be scary to think markets may fully reverse their moves since the elections, changing their mind that Trump's policy may not be so good after all," said Bart Wakabayashi, head of Hong Kong FX sales at State Street Global Markets.

His comments raised worries that a preliminary agreement reached in September for OPEC to reduce output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day may fall apart when OPEC ministers meet on Wednesday to finalize that deal.

OPEC also wants non-OPEC producers such as Russia to support the intervention by curbing their output.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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Saturday, 26 November 2016

Best Commodity Tips,

Crude oil prices are expected to rise as producing nations contemplate production cuts. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the cartel that accounts for a third of global oil production, is meeting in Vienna on November 30, 2016 for a possible production cut. Russia, the largest non-OPEC oil producer, is also proposing a production freeze at current levels of output.

Analysts at Credit Suisse feel the cut would result in a minimum 300- 500 million barrels of inventory drawdown, sufficient to drive an oil price recovery to above USD 60 a barrel from Q217 onwards. Under the most bullish scenario the research firm expects oil to reach near the USD 70s.

For India, rising oil prices and falling rupee is like a worst case scenario. As India is a net importer a falling rupee increases the cost of imports. Also, as India imports crude oil from a number of countries it follows prices of a basket of crude.

India imports oil at the rate of 4.29 million barrels per day. Thus every dollar rise in oil prices results in USD 128 million to the oil import bill every month or USD 1.54 billion every year. If crude oil touches USD 60 due to an oil production cut then the oil import bill could rise by over USD 15 billion a year. For context, last year’s bill was USD 64.4 billion.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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Wednesday, 23 November 2016

Best Commodity Tips

Gold drops as dollar rises in expectation of US rate hike

Gold prices fell on Thursday as the dollar strengthened on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December following positive US economic data.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at USD 1,185.43 an ounce by 0245 GMT. It dropped 2 percent in the previous session to touch its lowest in 9-1/2 months at USD 1,181.45.

US gold futures eased 0.4 percent to USD 1,184.60 per ounce.

Fed policymakers appeared confident on the eve of the US presidential election that the economy was strengthening enough to warrant interest rate increases soon, minutes from the Fed's November 1-2 meeting showed.

New orders for US manufactured capital goods rebounded in October, driven by rising demand for machinery and a range of other equipment, the latest indication of an acceleration in economic growth early in the fourth quarter.

Investors are now pricing in a nearly 100 percent probability of a December Fed rate increase, according to CME FedWatch, and some investors expect more hikes in 2017 if economic momentum is sustained.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647

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