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Tuesday, 20 February 2018

Best Commodity Tips
Oil falls as dollar firms, U.S. oil output expected to rise

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, weighed down by a rebound in the U.S. dollar from three-year lows hit last week and an expected rise in U.S. oil production.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $61.07 a barrel at 0446 GMT, down 72 cents, or 1.2 percent, from their last settlement.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell 60 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their last close to $64.65 per barrel.

Wang Tao, Reuters technical commodity analyst, said Brent could fall into a range of $63.92 to $64.41 per barrel, as suggested by its wave pattern and a projection analysis. said the declines were driven by a recovery in the dollar, which potentially hits fuel demand as it makes greenback-denominated oil imports more expensive for countries using other currencies.

The next set of weekly U.S. oil production data is due to be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday after a one-day delay because of the President's Day holiday on Monday.

That data will also include U.S. inventory figures that are expected to show crude oil stockpiles rose 1.3 million barrels in the week to Feb. 16, according to a Reuters poll. Oil product stockpiles, including gasoline and distillate fuels, are all expected to decline. the rising U.S. output, overall oil markets remain well supported due to healthy demand growth and supply restraint by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that started last year to draw down excess global inventories.

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Monday, 19 February 2018

Best Commodity Tips
Oil markets mixed on lower Canadian flows, firmer dollar

Oil markets were split on Tuesday, with U.S. crude was pushed up by reduced flows from Canada while international Brent prices eased.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $62.16 a barrel at 0153 GMT, up 48 cents, or 0.8 percent, from their last settlement.

Traders said the higher WTI prices were a result of reduced flows from Canada's Keystone pipeline, which has been operating below capacity since late last year due to a leak, cutting Canadian supplies into the United States. North America, Brent crude eased on the back of a dip in Asian stocks and a stronger dollar .DXY , which potentially curbs demand as it makes fuel more expensive for countries using other currencies domestically. crude futures LCOc1 were at $65.23 per barrel, down 44 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last close.

Despite this, oil markets remain well supported due to supply restraint by the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which started last year in order to draw down excess global inventories.

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said on Monday the organisation registered 133 percent compliance with agreed output reduction targets in January.

Barkindo said compliance last year stood at 107 percent.

Global oil demand for 2018 is estimated to grow 1.6 million barrels per day due to an "encouraging environment", Barkindo added.

"OPEC and Russia continue to support the production cuts that are due to expire at the end of this year, and they assure markets that there will be an orderly ramp up of production once the cuts expire," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Australia's Rivkin Securities.

While most of OPEC, especially its de-facto leader Saudi Arabia, is showing strong support for the production restraint, non-OPEC producer Russia has shown signs it may at some stage gradually start to increase output again. Arabia - not least in an attempt to give the planned listing of its state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco - a boost, is keen for Russia and other producers to keep withholding supplies to prop up prices. soaring U.S. production is threatening to erode OPEC's efforts.

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Sunday, 18 February 2018

Best Commodity Tips,
Oil extends gains, but upside limited as dollar edges up

Oil prices extended gains on Monday, but the increases were limited as the dollar recaptured some ground after touching its lowest level in more than three years on Friday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery CLc1 was up 5 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $61.73 a barrel by 2348 GMT, after rising 4.2 percent last week.

London Brent crude LCOc1 was up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $64.99 after rising more than 3 percent last week.

The U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future production, rose by seven to 798, its highest since April 2015, according to a weekly report from General Electric (NYSE:GE)'s Baker Hughes unit. RIG/U

That marked the first time since June that drillers added rigs for four consecutive weeks, and the figure was well up on the 597 rigs that were active a year earlier as energy companies have boosted spending since mid-2016 when crude prices began recovering from a two-year crash. U.S. production is offsetting efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some other producers including Russia to curb production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) till the end of 2018.

Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Saturday that Iran hoped to continue to export 2.1 to 2.2 million barrels per day beginning around April and to sell 500,000 bpd to India in the next fiscal year. managers slashed their bullish wagers on ICE Brent crude oil futures by the most in nearly eight months in the week to Feb. 13, data showed, as prices plunged amid concerns of oversupply. also cut net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Feb. 13 by the most since late August, 

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Saturday, 17 February 2018


Oil gains in weekly recovery on equities rebound, weak dollar

Oil prices edged up on Friday as a rebound in the global equities market and a weak dollar supported crude's recovery from last week's slide.

Global stocks rallied for a sixth straight session to post their best week in more than two years. The dollar .DXY rose on the day but remained on track to post its biggest weekly loss in nine months. A weaker dollar can boost oil and other dollar-denominated commodities. FRX/ MKTS/GLOB USD/

"I don't want to underestimate what the dollar is doing. The weaker dollar has been extremely supportive to crude," said Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled 51 cents, or 0.8 percent, higher at $64.84 per barrel, after touching eight-day highs. The global benchmark ended the week up more than 3 percent, partially recovering from a decline of more than 8 percent last week.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 rose 34 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $61.68. WTI gained 4 percent this week after losing nearly 10 percent last week.

"After such a sharp drop that we saw prior to Wednesday, perhaps a recovery was due," said Tony Headrick, an analyst at CHS Hedging LLC.

"However, you look at rig counts ... with the number of U.S. oil rigs increasing by seven, that's a point that should cap an extreme advance in prices," Headrick said.

The U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future production, rose seven to 798, its highest in three years, according to a weekly report from General Electric's Baker Hughes unit.

Surging U.S. production is offsetting those efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some other producers including Russia to curb production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) till the end of 2018.

U.S. crude output hit a record 10.27 million bpd last week, the Energy Information Administration said, making it a bigger producer than Saudi Arabia.

A little-noticed addition to the U.S. budget deal approved last week was also expected to further boost U.S. crude production by more than tripling a tax credit to producers for injecting carbon dioxide back into the earth to increase output.

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Wednesday, 14 February 2018

Best Commodity Tips
Gold Prices Fall In Asia As Chinese New Year Holidays Start

Gold dipped in Asia on Thursday as top buyer China started a market break through Feb. 21 to mark the Lunar New Year and physical trade dipped further with Hong Kong also shut and Singapore on holidays Friday and Monday.

Gold futures for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.11% to $1,356.50 a troy ounce.

Overnight, gold prices rose sharply amid dollar weakness as data showing rising inflation and falling retail sales stoked stagflation fears as market participants questioned the underlying strength of inflation.

The Labor Department said Wednesday its Consumer Price index rose 0.5% last month after rising 0.2% in December, while year-on-year CPI grew to 1.8% from 1.8% in July.

The Commerce Department, meanwhile, said on Wednesday that retail sales fell 0.3% last month, confounding expectations for a 0.3% rise.

Oil extends gains on Saudi commitment to cut, weak dollar

Oil prices on Thursday extended gains from the previous session, pushed up by a weak dollar and by comments from Saudi Arabia that it would rather see an undersupplied market than end a deal with OPEC and Russia to withhold production.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $61.02 a barrel at 0147 GMT, up 42 cents, or 0.7 percent from their last settlement, adding to a 2.4 percent gain in the previous session.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $64.64 per barrel, up 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, extending Wednesday's 2.6 percent rise.

Prices rose on the back of ongoing weakness in the U.S.-dollar against other leading currencies .DXY , further supported by rising stock markets, traders said. weaker greenback potentially supports consumption of dollar-denominated commodities as it makes fuel and raw materials cheaper for countries using other currencies.

"On commodity markets, everyone loves a lower U.S. dollar,"

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Tuesday, 13 February 2018

Best Commodity Tips
Crude Oil Prices Mixed In Asia With WTI Edging Down After API Estimates

Crude oil prices were mixed in Asia on Wednesday with US WTI showing a slight dip ahead of official data on weekly inventories in the United States

On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for March delivery fell 0.03% to $59.17 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent gained 0.37% to trade at $62.80 a barrel.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday said its weekly estimates of U.S. crude stocks showed a build of 3.947 million barrels, more than the 2.825 million barrels gain seen.

Gasoline inventories rose 4.634 million barrels, above the 1.229 million barrels expected and distillates rose 1.095 million barrels, compared to a 1.130 million barrels decline seen. Supplies at the oil storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 2.319 million barrels.

The estimates will be followed by official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. The API and EIA figures often diverge.

Oil stable on weaker dollar and healthy economic growth, but pockets of oversupply linger

Oil prices were stable on Wednesday, supported by healthy economic growth and expectations that a weaker dollar could spur fuel demand.

Despite this, crude prices remain well below recent highs due to signs of lingering oversupply, including rising U.S. inventories and ample physical flows globally.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $59.17 a barrel at 0123 GMT, down 2 cents from their last settlement. WTI was trading above $65 in early February.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $62.77 per barrel, up 5 cents from their last close. Brent was above $70 a barrel earlier this month.

Ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar, which potentially stokes demand from countries using other currencies at home, as well as healthy economic growth were supporting oil markets, traders said. we continue to see a firming fundamental backdrop over the course of this year ... investors should not discount the caution signs that have been emerging," investment bank RBC Capital Markets said in a note to clients.

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Best Commodity Tips

Gold Dips In Asia On Mild Dollar Gains, China Holiday Demand Eyed.  
Gold dipped in Asia on Tuesday with a slightly stronger dollar noted, but support seen from physical demand in China ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Overnight, gold prices rose sharply on dollar weakness. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A fall in the dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of foreign currency and thus, increases demand for the precious metal. The biggest demand for gold is for use in gold jewellery which accounts for roughly 50% of total demand, according to the World Gold Council. The rebound in gold prices comes in the wake of a second straight week of losses, however, market participants expect upward momentum to be short lived somewhat as strong US consumer inflation data due Wednesday could stoke expectations for a faster pace of Federal Reserve rate increases. 

Strikes to be game changer in copper ore supply in 2018. 
Strikes are expected to be the biggest factor affecting copper ore supply in 2018, with 30 labour negotiations already planned this year in Chile alone. In addition, such negotiation at Escondida scheduled in August and a share transfer programme at Grasberg would also create uncertainties over output at the world’s two largest copper mines. Following a decrease in copper ore supply in 2017, SMM forecast a 3.3% output growth this year contributed mainly by First Quantum’s Cobre Panama mine and Southern Copper’s Toquepala mine. Other factors including new and expanding smelting capacities in China and the country’s copper scrap import restrictions would also be key to watch out for this year.   

China will contest any 'unfair' U.S. trade measures on steel: think-tank.  
China will oppose any "unfair and unreasonable" trade measures by countries such as the United States against its steel companies, a Chinese government think-tank said on Tuesday, arguing protectionism will "poison" the industry. "Certainly we will protest against unfair and unreasonable measures launched by some countries such as the U.S.A. towards Chinese steel companies," the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute said in an email to Reuters. "We will also study and discuss the counter-measures to try to seek a fair position for Chinese companies without any violation of W.T.O. (World Trade Organisation) agreement."The Institute, which provides consultancy services to Chinese government policymakers and steel enterprises, was responding to recent efforts by U.S. steel firms urging President Donald Trump to curb surging imports they say are undermining the U.S. industry.

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