Crude Oil Price Roller Coaster Propelled By Rumors

Crude Oil rallied on Monday, September 26 2016, as the International Energy Forum commenced in Algeria. The forum has 72 member countries and brings together various international organizations, including chief executive officers, ministers from producing countries, various officials and so called experts to discuss energy (Natural Gas and renewable energy also) and the issues it faces.

Discussions are held on investments (reductions in crude oil and the effect on future supply), demand (slowing global economy) and the prospects for renewable energy and energy efficiency. The main interest in the meeting stems from the informal meeting to be held right after the forum shuts down on Wednesday. OPEC and NOPEC (Russia) are meeting in the hope of creating a dialogue and establishing parameters for some sort of freeze in order to shore up crude oil prices.

Participants have already stated that no formal decisions will be made at the meeting, but statements that Saudi Arabia will freeze production at January 2016 levels (10.2 million bpd) if rival Iran freezes production at a hard 3.6 million bpd has lifted prices. Crude traded up to test trendline resistance (46.32) with the day’s high of 46.20, before drifting lower and settling at 45.93 and then ending the session at 45.92.

Traders bid up price on supportive headlines and then it drifted lower when denied. This is what to expect for the next couple of days, rumors and then denials until it’s over and a formal announcement is made. I don’t know what to expect, but my guess is the announcement will be that we are close to an agreement so stay tuned for more headline trading.

They want to keep price climbing without actually making any decisions on a cut or a freeze, in my opinion, and keep traders salivating for more bullish headlines. Does Saudi Arabia want to give up market share to Iran? To the US, to Russia? They need the funds from crude oil, so do all producers, as this is where they get most of their revenue. If price can break free from trendline resistance which drops to 46.21 for Tuesday’s trade, a test of resistance at 47.30 is possible. Longer term trendline resistance is at 48.15. Support is at the 21 DMA (45.13) and then the 8 DMA at 44.94 and the 50 DMA is at 44.63.

High 46.20

Low 44.43

Last 45.62

Daily Pivot Points for 9/27/16

R2 47.19

R1 46.40

PIVOT 45.42

S1 44.63

S2 43.65

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BULLION

Platinum December future is trading with a loss of 1.3 percent at $ 1,046.Silver December delivery has slipped almost a percent at $ 19.617.Gold December contract is down 0.3 percent at $ 1,337 an ounce.

ENERGY

Crude Oil November and Brent Oil November series have advanced around a percent each at $ 44.81 and $ 46.82 a barrel, respectively.Natural Gas November contract has also gained nearly a percent at $ 3.035.

BASE METAL

Copper December delivery is quoted at $ 2.196 - down 0.2 percent.

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Gold edged back towards the previous session's two-week highs on Friday and stayed on track for its biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, after the Federal Reserve sounded a cautious note on the pace of interest rate hikes.

The Fed signalled an increasingly careful approach to future rate hikes after a policy meeting on Wednesday, reassuring investors who had feared the U.S. central bank could move more quickly to tighten monetary policy.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising US interest rates, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,338.36 an ounce at 1400 GMT, and was more than 2 percent higher on the week, its best weekly performance since late July.

The metal has been boosted by the Fed moving in a more dovish direction, ABN Amro analyst Georgette Boele said.

"But in the end everyone realises that (a December hike) will likely happen, so it is too dangerous to push gold prices above the previous peak for now,"

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BULLION

Silver December future has declined 0.4 percent in early deals at $ 19.858.Gold December contract is quoted at $ 1,338 an ounce, down 0.2 percent.Platinum October delivery is almost unchanged at $ 1,055.

ENERGY

Crude Oil November expiry has slipped over a percent at $ 45.83 a barrel.Brent Oil November future has also shed almost a percent at $ 47.27.Natural Gas October contract is marginally up at $ 2.994.

BASE METAL

Copper December delivery is trading on a soft note at $ 2.188.

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BULLION

Silver December future has advanced 0.5 percent at $ 19.877.Gold December contract has gained has gained 0.4 percent at $ 1,336.65 an ounce.Platinum October delivery is almost unchanged at $ 1,054.60.

ENERGY

Both Crude Oil and Brent Oil November series are have spurted almost a percent each at $ 45.80 and $ 47.27 a barrel, respectively.Natural Gas October future is quoted at $ 3.085 - up 0.5 percent.

BASE METAL

Copper December delivery has added 0.5 percent at $ 2.174.

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BULLION

Gold and Silver December futures are up 0.2 percent in early deals at $ 1,320 an ounce and $ 19.307, respectively.Platinum October delivery has gained 0.4 percent at $ 1,035.

ENERGY

Crude Oil October contract is trading on a firm note at $ 44.86 per barrel - up almost 2 percent.Brent Oil November expiry has also jumped 1.3 percent at $ 46.48.Natural Gas October future is quoted at $ 3.077 - up 0.3 percent.

BASE METAL

Copper December delivery has declined 0.3 percent at $ 2.157.

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BULLION

Gold and Silver December futures are slightly up at $ 1,319 an ounce and $ 19.307, respectively.Platinum October delivery has gained 0.4 percent at $ 1,027.60.

ENERGY

Crude Oil October contract has declined over 0.5 percent at $ 43.62 per barrel.Brent Oil November expiry is quoted at $ 45.81 - down 0.3 percent.Natural Gas October future has added 0.4 percent at $ 2.949.

BASE METAL

Copper December delivery is marginally down at $ 2.152.

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